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Thailand's "interest rate" is SHOCKINGLY remain at 2.5% throughout 2024.

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Thailand's "interest rate" is SHOCKINGLY remain at 2.5% throughout 2024.

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5 months ago

Thailand's "interest rate" is SHOCKINGLY remain at 2.5% throughout 2024.

Thailand's "interest rate" is SHOCKINGLY remain at 2.5% throughout 2024.

Implementation of the Federal Reserve's "interest rates" in 2024 will undoubtedly have a major impact on the global financial sector. This uncertainty puts many countries, including Thailand, at risk. Based on signals sent from the December 2023 Monetary Policy Committee (FOMC) meeting, it is unclear whether the Fed will cut policy rates this year. Some members argued that keeping interest rates high is necessary. If the inflation rate cannot be reduced according to the set target then there is also the possibility of an increase in the US policy interest rate if other variables are not as expected.

interest rate

Many reliable analysts have reported that "US interest rates" may fall in the upcoming quarter of this year. It will bring excitement to the world stock market and promote a more dynamic investment environment. At the same time, the US dollar weakened. It tends to make "gold" and "cryptocurrency" attract the attention of investors from around the world.

interest rate

Dive into in-depth analysis from Krungsri Research Forecasts on the Thai economic outlook and its relationship to inflation. It is an important factor that influences Thailand's Policy Interest Rate, it expects inflation to fluctuate in 2024 due to the gradual economic recovery in the country. and production costs are expected to increase Including an increase in the minimum wage. This may result in Thailand's inflation rate rising from 1.3% in 2023 to 2% in 2024. Therefore, careful guidelines for managing the policy interest rate are required. The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) expects to maintain interest rates at 2.5 percent throughout the year to ensure that inflation remains within the desired range and facilitate the Thai economy's return to a sustainable growth path. It also allows the policy to be flexible enough to deal with risks that may arise in the future.

 

The Ministry of Commerce found that Thailand has a very low inflation rate compared to other countries in November 2023, meaning relatively low prices for goods. Thailand is 5th in the world with a negative inflation at a rate of 0.44%. Although the Thai economy is expected to improve in 2024, it is still not growing as much as other countries. In the same area It is expected to expand at 3.4% from 2.5% in 2023. The International Monetary Fund forecasts that the economies of the ASEAN 5 countries will grow more than Thailand, growing at 4.5% in 2024 from 4.2% in 2023.

As for domestic factors that may put pressure on the growth of the Thai economy, they include:

  • The problem of high household debt amid rising borrowing costs. 
  • The effects of drought may also be more severe.
  • Structural problems such as an aging population
  • Labor shortages and declining competitiveness in many industries.

 

External factors that may create risks in 2024 include:

  • The impact of the highest interest rates in more than two decades could put pressure on the economies and financial sectors of the world's core countries.
  • Chinese economic slowdown amid fragility in real estate sector
  • Economic polarization between the US and China
  • Geopolitical conflicts that may expand in the future

 

Sources: Krungsri Research, and Thairath Money.

 

 

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(อัตราดอกเบี้ยประเทศไทย)

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