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8 months ago
Implementation of the Federal Reserve's "interest rates" in 2024 will undoubtedly have a major impact on the global financial sector. This uncertainty puts many countries, including Thailand, at risk. Based on signals sent from the December 2023 Monetary Policy Committee (FOMC) meeting, it is unclear whether the Fed will cut policy rates this year. Some members argued that keeping interest rates high is necessary. If the inflation rate cannot be reduced according to the set target then there is also the possibility of an increase in the US policy interest rate if other variables are not as expected.
Many reliable analysts have reported that "US interest rates" may fall in the upcoming quarter of this year. It will bring excitement to the world stock market and promote a more dynamic investment environment. At the same time, the US dollar weakened. It tends to make "gold" and "cryptocurrency" attract the attention of investors from around the world.
Dive into in-depth analysis from Krungsri Research Forecasts on the Thai economic outlook and its relationship to inflation. It is an important factor that influences Thailand's Policy Interest Rate, it expects inflation to fluctuate in 2024 due to the gradual economic recovery in the country. and production costs are expected to increase Including an increase in the minimum wage. This may result in Thailand's inflation rate rising from 1.3% in 2023 to 2% in 2024. Therefore, careful guidelines for managing the policy interest rate are required. The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) expects to maintain interest rates at 2.5 percent throughout the year to ensure that inflation remains within the desired range and facilitate the Thai economy's return to a sustainable growth path. It also allows the policy to be flexible enough to deal with risks that may arise in the future.
The Ministry of Commerce found that Thailand has a very low inflation rate compared to other countries in November 2023, meaning relatively low prices for goods. Thailand is 5th in the world with a negative inflation at a rate of 0.44%. Although the Thai economy is expected to improve in 2024, it is still not growing as much as other countries. In the same area It is expected to expand at 3.4% from 2.5% in 2023. The International Monetary Fund forecasts that the economies of the ASEAN 5 countries will grow more than Thailand, growing at 4.5% in 2024 from 4.2% in 2023.
Sources: Krungsri Research, and Thairath Money.
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